-
第 11 樓 / 金子
- 時間: 2011-7-24 07:28WASHINGTON – Congressional talks dissolved in recrimination again Saturday night, as the latest proposal for cutting the deficit and raising the government's debt limit hit a wall with 10 days left before the U.S. begins defaulting on its obligations.
Republican and Democratic leaders had identified immediate spending cuts of about $1 trillion with future cuts to be specified by a commission.
But while Democrats wanted to raise the debt ceiling by $2.4 trillion, which would extend through the end of 2012, Republicans wanted to raise the ceiling in two phases, with smaller increases each time, with the second phase dependent on the commission's recommendations.
House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio), hosted the leaders of both parties in his conference room at 5:30 p.m. in an attempt to resolve the impasse. The leaders were expected to issue a joint statement following the meeting, in part to reassure the markets. But no such statement was issued, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) instead released a bleak statement of his own.
White House talks to avert a disastrous early August debt default teetered on the edge of collapse late Friday as Republican House Speaker John Boehner abruptly quit the negotiations. Video courtesy of AFP.
."I hope that Speaker Boehner and [Senate Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell will reconsider their intransigence," Mr. Reid said. "Their unwillingness to compromise is pushing us to the brink of a default on the full faith and credit of the United States. We have run out of time for politics." -
-
- 時間: 2011-7-25 06:1907-25-2011
Goog 盤後615.40 跌2.83 (0.46%) 開盤613.36
Aapl 盤後390.62 跌2.68 (0.68%) 開盤390.35
Nwsa 16.42 開盤16.12
金價：1617.71 新高
油價：99.81
道指：開盤跳長陰
全球金融形勢
美國白宮和國會巨頭的談判再一次破裂，眾議議長博納退出削減政府赤字談判.美國首次承認有違約的可能性。如果25日不能達成提高政府舉債上限，以免政府出現違約，危及金融市場及經濟共識，將來不及在8月2日前完成立法程序，美國信貸評級也將遭到下調。美國債危機突然轉向，必然會對美國股市形成巨大影響，也將影響到歐債危機的解決。本周這件大事，將決定外圍市場的走勢，也將決定著市場對債市的信心。一旦出現意外，將有可能對股市也形成嚴重沖擊
證券業與金融市場協會（SIFMA）最近就召集會員開會，討論如何修改它們的電腦系統，以向國債投資者發出期票（IOU），而非真的派發利息，以防美國政府真的出現債務違約事件無法依期派息。
www.westca.com/News/ar...inese.html
奧巴馬在聲明中說，短期提高債務上限有害於美國經濟，將使美國主權債務評級遭致下調，使每個美國人的信用卡、住房和汽車貸款利率上升。如果短短幾個月後，兩黨再就債務上限問題斗爭，這對國家和經濟是不負責任的。
根據美國財政部聲明，到今年5月16日，美國聯邦政府已達法定的14.29萬億美元公共債務上限；如果國會不能在8月2日前提高公共債務上限，美國將面臨債務違約風險。隨著違約日期日漸臨近，兩黨能否達成協議顯得更加緊迫。
www.wenxuecity.com/new...23768.html
網友意見
奧巴馬的策略就是拖, 把個爛攤子留給下屆政府. - 其實美債違約, 對於美元來說是利好. 從美國國家利益考慮, 應該讓美債違約, 這樣不僅可以減輕美國的債務負擔, 還可以打擊中國等對手的實體經濟. 如果這麼長期拖下去, 那麼唯一的結果就是美元, 美債一起完蛋. 但是美債違約將引發全球經濟的大蕭條, 這個責任奧巴馬是承擔不起的, 所以他只好拖, 把個爛攤子留給下屆政府. 這也算是民主政治的一個致命的弊端吧. -
-
- 時間: 2011-7-26 00:46最新23分鍾前的消息---仍然僵持----明天股市
1 25日市場回顧
Obama appeals for debt-limit compromise; Boehner says GOP sticks by its spending-cuts bill
Despite warnings to the contrary, U.S. financial markets have appeared to take the political maneuvering in stride -- so far. Wall Street posted losses Monday but with no indication of panic among investors.
Without signed legislation by day's end on Aug. 2, the Treasury will be unable to pay all its bills, possibly triggering an unprecedented default that officials warn could badly harm a national economy struggling to recover from the worst recession in decades
2Rival plans ensnarl Congress over debt ceiling
Jim Kuhnhenn, Associated Press, On Tuesday July 26, 2011, 3:12 am
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Rival Democratic and Republican plans to raise the government's borrowing ability have thrust Congress into a standoff just one week away from a potentially devastating debt crisis. President Barack Obama made a last ditch call for compromise, but House Speaker John Boehner said negotiations with the White House had been futile.
The extraordinary back-to-back appeals to the public gave no indication that weeks of brinkmanship and sputtering talks over long-term deficit reductions were on the verge of ending. With an Aug. 2 deadline rapidly closing, Congress and the White House had limited options to avoid a potential government default that could send the already weak economy into a damaging swoon. -
- 時間: 2011-7-26 06:5907-26-2011
Goog 盤後622.00 3.02 開盤623.79
Aapl 盤後399.95 1.45 開盤400.00
Nwsa 16.22 開盤16.24
金價：1611.44 略跌
油價：99.69 略跌
道指：開盤小幅略跌
其他各股觀察
HOU.TO 開7.13 奇怪，該股日線前幾日出現交叉。死亡或黃金目前不知
SDX.V 開 0.13 已經開始出現買入信號
MCD 開88.06
KO 開69.35
Vz 開36.17 已經連跌2天
WMT開54.03
INTC開23.03 這只股絕對可以拿來做DT
HNU.TO 開5.21
HND.TO開8.01
復盤回顧
對goog，Aapl的判斷不准確
但操作來看是做對：昨625做空goog,撤了aapl 400的空單 -
- 時間: 2011-7-26 22:05黃金正朝沖破每盎士2,000美元的關口進發
周一，金價曾見過每盎士1,624.3美元的價位，最後收報1,612.2美元，亦即上升了10.7美元。數名專家表示，金價可能最早於明年升至2,000美元裡程碑價位。
Lind-Waldock的高級市場策略師庫根(John Kurgan)表示，這意味著任何種類的首飾價格將會較高。
黃金的價值通常都被視為反映世界經濟信心的一個指標，長期以來受到那些要將風險減至最低的投資者的歡迎。投資者緊張不安時便會購買黃金，導致這種貴重金屬的價格上揚。事實上，2009年初時，每盎士的黃金的價格是880美元，在至今的3年內已升了幾乎1倍。
正當評級機構穆迪(Moody's)於周一將希臘的債券評級進一步下調3級及美國的政客試圖於8月2日限期之前將國家債務上限調升之際，投資者紛紛吸納黃金。
庫根表示，正出現了對美元及歐元這兩種主要貨幣缺乏信心的情況。
黃金、白銀及白金基金公司Bullion Management Group Inc.的經營者巴雷謝夫(Nick Barisheff)表示，目前黃金是值得考慮的安全投資，原因是一些政府正加印銀紙來還債，令到本身的貨幣價值下降。
他表示，在分散投資角度來說， 一般的投資者開始時在黃金方面的投資需要佔10%。
他在安省萬錦市(Markham)的辦事處表示，黃金的表現已比其他所有的資產類別均優勝，而大部分的零售投資者以至機構均未有黃金方面的投資。
然而，皇家銀行(Royal Bank)的首席經濟師韋特(Craig Wright)表示，該銀行預測，當那些出現問題的國家一旦成功地對債券作出長期的控制，黃金的熱潮將會降溫。
他接受訪問時稱，該銀行預測，目前令市場害怕及支持金價的一些因素應會獲得紓緩，而金價應會回落。他說，壞消息應會減少，而這應當反映出如果黃金價格尚未到頂，但也可能頗為接近頂位。
news.singtao.ca/vancou...25903.html -
- 時間: 2011-7-27 06:54
-
- 時間: 2011-7-28 06:3107-28-2011
Goog 開盤605.19
Aapl 開盤391.62
Nwsa 開盤16.04
金價：1615.37 比昨日下跌
油價：
道指：略持，盤旋
復盤回顧
昨日對大勢判斷准確
今天是值得關注的一天
10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell
(Business Insider)
• The debt ceiling fight goes on. House speaker John Boehner introduced a revised debt ceiling plan which will be voted on today. It's expected to be a close vote, but the odds are likely that it passes. However, all Senate Democrats have said that it's DOA in The Senate.
• Credit Suisse is out with a report that says a U.S. default would cause stocks to plummet 30% and GDP to shrink by 5%. Even if there were no default, but a payment prioritization by the Treasury, each month of no increase in the debt ceiling could shave 0.5% - 1% off GDP
• •European markets are down on contagion fears. Germany is down about 1.5% 2%.. France is off over 1.1% and Italy is off 1.3%. Meanwhile, Italy raised �7.97 billion at its bond auction against a target of �8.5 billion, the country's borrowing costs soared, with yields on the 10-year bond rising to 5.77%. Now here is the sad story of how Italy got to be such a wreck
• Norwegian oil and gas giant Statoil ASA posted a larger that expected Q2 profit of 27.1 billion kroner ($5 billion), or 8.44 kroner a share. Earnings were pushed up by rising oil prices, but Statoil's output dropped 8.5%, a concern for investors.
• Pending home sales index for June will be released at 10 AM ET. Consensus is for 2% month-over-month decline in the index -
- 時間: 2011-7-29 05:06股市、油價跌；黃金、加元兌美元漲的原因
The loonie closed at just under 106 cents US Wednesday, as crude oil and commodity prices fell amid concerns over Washington's ongoing debt woes.
The Canadian dollar was down 0.68 of a cent to 105.39 cents US by the end of Wednesday's trading.
On Tuesday the loonie hit 106.31, its highest point since the first week of November 2007 when it briefly topped $1.08 against the greenback, BNN's Michael Kane said.
The U.S. dollar gained ground against the loonie in late trading, even as Washington faces down an Aug. 2 deadline to reach a deal to increase its debt ceiling.
If legislators don't agree to extend the U.S. debt ceiling by next week's deadline, the U.S. will likely begin to default on its debts and could lose its top credit rating.
The ongoing debt talks are taking their toll on the markets, Kane said.
"When it comes to investors and financial markets they hate uncertainty. It's a cliché but it's true. That's why we're seeing equities really starting to drop now," he told CTV News Channel.
In Toronto the S&P/TSX composite index dropped 267.89 points to 13,032.67. New York's Dow industrials also fell Wednesday, as did the Nasdaq and the S&P500 index.
Gold bullion, which has reached new heights amid the U.S. economic uncertainty, declined $1.70 Wednesday from its latest record close of US$1,615 an ounce. The precious metal is typically seen as a safe-haven investment during tenuous financial times.
Oil prices fell Wednesday to below US$99 a barrel. The slip happened after estimates showed U.S. crude supplies jumped by four million barrels last week, suggesting demand could be weakening.
Expectations had been that the crude supply would drop by 2.3 million barrels, rather than increase.
Copper prices also fell Wednesday after gaining seven cents a day earlier.
Capital Markets issued an investor note on Wednesday, looking at the effects of the ongoing uncertainty related to the U.S. debt crisis.
The note said "the prices of gold and silver are obvious beneficiaries of the increasing worries about U.S. government," but added that other commodities have also held up better than expected.
"Nonetheless, with the exception of precious metals, we still think that commodity prices will fall sharply in the event of an actual U.S. downgrade or default," the note said.
www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servl...lumbiaHome -
- 時間: 2011-7-29 08:0607-29-2011
Goog 開盤604.23
Aapl 開盤387.64
Nwsa 開盤15.93
金價：1627 再次新高
油價：95.49 略跌
道指：第六天下跌
對美國國債的擔心拖累全球經濟，希臘的陰影並未遠去
LONDON (AP) -- Concerns that American lawmakers won't raise the government's debt limit in time to avoid a default and worse-than-expected U.S. growth figures sent global markets spiraling lower Friday.
If Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling -- the amount of debt the government can accumulate -- by Tuesday, the U.S. could be forced to default on at least some of its obligations.
While investors have been jittery about that prospect for weeks, the inability this week of Republicans to even get their own party to agree on a plan has ratcheted up fears with just days to go.
Even if lawmakers do come up with a deal in time, ratings agencies could still downgrade U.S. debt -- which would push borrowing costs up and make it more difficult for Congress to reduce the amount of money the government owes.
"Even if the debt ceiling deadline is met, the current proposals on the table and lack of bipartisan support for dealing with the deficit issues in a credible and timely fashion, suggest that the risks of a U.S. credit downgrade are quite high," said Robin Bahr, an analyst with Credit Agricole.
A U.S. downgrade or default would harm an already fragile global economy, and Friday brought new signs of just what a sorry state it is in. Eurozone inflation unexpectedly dropped and U.S. growth data missed economists already very low expectations.
The U.S. economy expanded by just 1.3 percent in the second quarter, disappointing predictions of 1.7 percent. That bad news was compounded by a revision of figures from the first quarter that showed just 0.4 percent growth, down from an estimated 1.9 percent.
Oil has also been pushed down by the slow growth, with the main New York contract trading another $2.07 a barrel lower at $95.37.
While the main focus of concern this week has been on the debt debate in the U.S., there are mounting signs that last week's bailout deal for Greece hasn't sufficiently eased fears that bigger economies such as Spain and Italy will get sucked into the vortex of Europe's debt crisis.
Europe's debt problems are continuing to weigh on the euro even at a time when the dollar is being undermined by Washington's own debt issues. -
- 時間: 2011-7-30 07:51加拿大統計局報告：國內生產總值在5月下降0.3％。礦業、石油和天然氣是5月下降的主要原因，制造業和建築業也表現不佳。
美國總統奧巴馬周五再次表示，他不會簽署共和黨的提案。民主黨人說，必須提高債務上限
對經濟狀況的擔憂，使油價跌、金價漲
Statistics Canada reported that real gross domestic product decreased by 0.3 per cent in May, much worse than the 0.2 per cent gain that had been expected. Growth was flat in April.
The agency said the mining and oil and gas extraction sector was the main source of the decline in May while manufacturing and construction also contributed to the poor showing.
Other data released Friday showed that the American economy grew by an anemic 1.3 per cent in the second quarter versus a rise of 1.8 per cent that economists had expected. First-quarter growth was revised to 0.4 per cent from 1.9 per cent.
Meanwhile investors looked for the next move in resolving the U.S. debt crisis ahead of Tuesday's deadline.
House Republicans tried for a third straight day to pass a bill that would raise the borrowing limit while cutting federal spending by nearly US$1 trillion. President Barack Obama said again Friday that he will not sign the Republican bill. Democrats say any bill must raise the debt ceiling enough to postpone the need for any additional increases until at least 2013.
Worries of worsening economic conditions helped put pressure on oil prices as the September contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down $1.74 at US$95.70 a barrel.
Metal prices gained ground with the September copper contract in New York ahead one cent at US$4.48 a pound.
Nervous investors continued to push gold bullion further into record territory, with the December contract on the Nymex ahead $15 at US$1,631.20 an ounce.
www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servl...lumbiaHome
資料貼之三----自言自語之全球金融動態、黃金價格跟蹤、每周不定期綜述
